Modeling the Potential Shift to Sustainable Modes and the Resultant Reduction in Carbon Emission
摘要
Compact development of a region is supported by sustainable transportation, which effectively decreases the travel time and cost between locations and brings in savings in economy and environment. Suburban areas could be facilitated with transport infrastructure development to pave way for enhanced patronage to sustainable modes. Existing travel pattern is examined and estimated the carbon emissions from transportation sector in a suburban region located in the southern state of Kerala in India. Henceforth this paper presents the mode shift behavior toward ecofriendly modes in a proposed transport scenario with good connectivity of sustainable modes. The stated proposed transport scenario comprises of non-motorized transport (NMT) friendly ring road infrastructure enabling good connectivity with reliable public transport and feeder services. Stated preference surveys were carried out at household level to collect information on travelers’ socio-economic and travel characteristics. Traveler’s satisfactory levels with the current travel modes and their willingness to shift to ecofriendly modes were also examined. Binary logistic regression models were formulated to predict the potential mode shift to ecofriendly modes. The predicted mode shifts for work, educational, shopping, social/recreational, and medical purposes was approximately 43.24%, 56.57%, 40.35%, 39.58%, and 34.43% respectively. Based on mode shift analysis, reduction in carbon emissions were estimated to be 40% and 51% for work and educational trips respectively. Development of a ring road infrastructure with reliable public transportation and NMT facilities will help to enhance the patronage for public transportation and thereby reduce the carbon emission from transport sector.