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Joint Stock Company (JSC) Trest 12, a well-known construction and installation firm in Uzbekistan, has demonstrated significant progress since its founding in 1979, transforming from a state corporation into a public company. The purpose of the study is to conduct an econometric analysis of the production efficiency indicators of Trest 12 JSC and provide a forecast for the period from 2024 to 2028, allowing us to understand the factors affecting profitability and efficiency. Using ordinary least squares (OLS) and vector autoregression (VAR) models, historical data from 1997 to 2023 is analyzed. Key variables include the number of insured employees and employees with secondary and higher education. Econometric tests such as the Shapiro-Wilk test and the Granger causality test support the assumptions and results of the model. The results show a significant positive correlation between insured employees and net profit in the OLS model, while higher education level has a negative effect on profitability. The VAR model predicts continued growth in net profit: net profit is expected to reach 27.3 billion soums by 2024 and 28.4 billion soums by 2028 under normal conditions. This study highlights the importance of personnel composition for the profitability of Trest 12 JSC, suggesting that increasing the number of employees with secondary education can improve financial performance. The study provides a predictive model for strategic planning and future expansion.

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Forecasting the Production Indicators of a Construction and Installation Company: Using the Example of Trest 12 JSC

  • 会议论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年

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  • Sanobar Akhmedova,
  • Shoh-Jakhon Khamdamov,
  • Samariddin Makhmudov,
  • Dilmurod Ikromovich Irgashev,
  • Ozoda Djalolitdinovna Nishanova,
  • Dilrabo Akhmedova,
  • Feruza Payzievna Azimova,
  • Luiza Mirpulatova

摘要

Joint Stock Company (JSC) Trest 12, a well-known construction and installation firm in Uzbekistan, has demonstrated significant progress since its founding in 1979, transforming from a state corporation into a public company. The purpose of the study is to conduct an econometric analysis of the production efficiency indicators of Trest 12 JSC and provide a forecast for the period from 2024 to 2028, allowing us to understand the factors affecting profitability and efficiency. Using ordinary least squares (OLS) and vector autoregression (VAR) models, historical data from 1997 to 2023 is analyzed. Key variables include the number of insured employees and employees with secondary and higher education. Econometric tests such as the Shapiro-Wilk test and the Granger causality test support the assumptions and results of the model. The results show a significant positive correlation between insured employees and net profit in the OLS model, while higher education level has a negative effect on profitability. The VAR model predicts continued growth in net profit: net profit is expected to reach 27.3 billion soums by 2024 and 28.4 billion soums by 2028 under normal conditions. This study highlights the importance of personnel composition for the profitability of Trest 12 JSC, suggesting that increasing the number of employees with secondary education can improve financial performance. The study provides a predictive model for strategic planning and future expansion.