Rainstorm Waterlogging Simulation and Risk Assessment in Central Urban Area of Chengdu, China
摘要
Urban rainstorm waterlogging disasters affect the sustainable urban development seriously. The distribution of waterlogging disaster risk is not only affected by rainstorm, but also closely related to urban terrain, population distribution and urban built environment. In this paper, based on the soil conservation service (SCS) runoff generation model and GIS tools, we selected Chengdu as the research area and proposed a simplified urban rainstorm waterlogging disaster model which can simulate the 3h waterlogging scenarios under the 10, 50, and100 year return periods of rainstorm. The proposed model overcome the drawbacks of time-consuming calculation, high data demands and low applicability of the previous hydrodynamic model. The results show that: (1) Under the rainstorm return period of 10a, 50a and 100a, the maximum inundation elevation in the central urban area can reach 0.67m, 0.72m and 0.79m, respectively. The flooded area accounts for 4.3%, 12.6% and 18.4% of the central urban area, respectively. (2) The ROC value of MaxENT waterlogging probability prediction model developed in this paper is above 0.8, and the distance from road traffic is the most contribution factor. (3) The risk level of rainstorm and waterlogging in the south of the Chengdu is significantly higher than that in the north, and gradually decreases from the urban center to the surrounding suburbs. This risk distribution is closely related to the precipitation climate distribution and the terrain.