As a result of the burgeoning population, rapid urbanization, and climate change, water resources are under tremendous pressure. Water scarcity, secondary soil salination, waterlogging, and lowered groundwater levels are alarming situations that require immediate intervention to control their effects and plan sustainable water resources. Thus, the purpose of this study is to model and assess the hydrological impacts of land-use change and land-cover loss on the Pawana basin in the state of Maharashtra. The efficient hydrological model must be used to achieve the goals, which is why SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) was used in this investigation. Data from metrology was analysed for the SWAT model between 2000 and 2020. The India Meteorological Department in Pune provided the meteorological data, while the HDUG group in Nasik provided the hydrological data. The results of the SWAT model were calibrated and validated using the SWAT-CUP tool and the SUFI II algorithm. Following processing, it was found that there is a good degree of fitness between the simulated and observed data, indicating that the SWAT model is accepted. The Statistical parameters like NSE and R2 were used to assess the sensitivity of the work. The observed R2 value was 0.80, while the NSE was 0.78. In order to simulate the water balance components for the Pawana basin, downscaled Global Climate Models (GCMs) data were used, along with hypothetical LULC change and management scenarios, to compare future scenarios (2030–2100) to a baseline period (1974–2004) under RCP-4.5 and RCP-8.5. Lastly, it was shown that while precipitation over the study basin exhibits substantial variety, average temperature over the basin is increasing across all GCMs. These findings will help organizations and stakeholders working in the water resources area to adapt and implement the correctives action for alleviating the negative effects of LULC and climate change on water supplies.