Trend Analysis of Panchganga Catchment Rainfall by Statistical Approach
摘要
Rainfall is one of the most important climatic variables that determine the spatial and temporal patterns of climate variability of a region, which provides the useful information for planning of management of water resources, agricultural production, assessment of the impacts of climate variability, etc. The drastic changes in rainfall trend showed a significant impact on society and therefore its up-to-date information is needed to estimate the spatial distribution and variability at all points of the territory, which would lead to hazardous events like flood and drought. In the present study, an attempt has been made to analyse the trend in annual 1-day maximum rainfall (AMR), annual total rainfall (ATR) and monsoon total rainfall (MTR) series that is derived from the daily rainfall data observed at Gaganbawada, Kolhapur, Lanja and Radhanagari rain-gauge stations, which are located within Panchganga catchment. The presence of significant trend in AMR, ATR and MTR series was evaluated through a non-parametric Mann–Kendall (MK) test. The results of the trend analysis of Lanja and Radhanagari indicated that there is a decreasing trend in AMR, ATR and MTR. For Gaganbawada, the results indicated that there is a significant increasing trend in AMR whereas decreasing trend in ATR and MTR. The results of trend analysis of rainfall of Kolhapur showed that there is a significant increasing trend in AMR and MTR whereas decreasing trend in ATR. The rate of increasing or decreasing trend in AMR, ATR and MTR series was determined from the slope of the fitted lines using linear regression and the results are presented.