Accurate prediction runoff at different lead time intervals is very essential to meet the day by day increasing water demand and also for the effective utilization of limited water resources. Rainfall–Runoff is the natural phenomenon which explains how rainfall interrelates with the surface flow and absorption into the soil (infiltration process). After satisfying of soil moisture capacity, excess amount of rainfall flows on the surface of the earth as a runoff. This whole natural process is known as the rainfall–runoff process. Generation of runoff also depends upon catchment characteristics like the land cover, soil type, slope, intensity of rainfall and climate change within the catchment area. The present study aims to predict runoff one day ahead in time interval using a numerical technique of Hydrologic Engineering Centre’s Hydrologic Modelling System (HEC-HMS) at Shivade station in India’s Upper Krishna Basin. The Shivade station in the upper Krishna Basin is considered as the study area along with the eight nearby rain gauge stations in the same basin for this study. To evaluate the model performance different traditional error measures are used and model results reveal that the HEC-HMS model is reasonable and can be applied for modelling the rainfall–runoff process and to simulate the runoff. Detailed result analysis along with the error measures is presented in the full manuscript of the paper.