Historical Trend and Future Projection of Extreme Precipitation in Nepal from High-Resolution CMIP6 Data
摘要
Understanding the spatial and temporal characteristics of precipitation and its extremes for the past and future periods can help identify the driving potential of extreme events, especially in the context of climate change. This study presents the spatial and temporal variation of precipitation on a seasonal and annual scale and their change in future periods (2015–2100) in response to historical periods (1980–2014), using bias-corrected and downscaled nine Coupled Model Intercomparison Project -sixth phase (CMIP6) ensemble members under mid- (SSP245) and high- (SSP585) emission scenarios over Nepal. The precipitation trend and related precipitation extremes (ten indices), distribution, and future changes were also assessed. The bias-corrected CMIP6 models slightly underestimated the observed precipitation amount but generally captured the observed precipitation pattern over the country. The spatial distribution of mean precipitation is similar between the historical and the projected periods, with higher precipitation likely to occur in the future, particularly under SSP585 scenarios. In the historical period, precipitation was found to be increasing in the monsoon season only, which is likely to continue in the future period at a rate of 2.3 mm/year and 5.8 mm/year under SSP245 and SSP585, respectively. The decreasing trend of winter precipitation in the historical period will continue in future periods, whereas precipitation in pre- and post-monsoon will likely increase in future periods. Further, all extreme precipitation indices except for consecutive dry days were found to be increasing, with higher frequency and intensity projected in the future. The increase in high-intensity and wetness-related precipitation extremes are related to the increasing precipitation in the monsoon season, while the increase in dry days-related extremes may be related to reduced winter precipitation. The findings of the present study can help understand an early snapshot of future precipitation and extreme event scenarios, which can serve as a reference for developing strategies to mitigate climate-related risks in the region.