This study examines cold-season event-based extreme precipitation statistics over the conterminous U.S. using radar-gauge merged 1/8th-degree hourly precipitation data from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) Phase 2 datasets. Analysis is conducted during Northern Hemisphere cold seasons (October to March) from 1997 to 2015. At each 1/8th-degree grid, event-based statistics were derived for storm duration, total accumulated precipitation, and duration of dry period. Histograms of event-based statistics are used to estimate the thresholds for rare (above 99th percentile) and very rare (above 99.9th percentile) events. The very rare extreme events exceed 10 cm of accumulated precipitation over 68 h in Northwest region. Climatology maps for the rare long-lasting winter storm events depicts unique distributions of these events. Further, time series of these statistics maps revealed that Northern Great Plains, Midwest, and Northeast regions of the United States experienced above-normal extreme precipitation accumulation events after 2006. However, these events are neither accompanied with prolonged duration of precipitation events nor dry periods, as hypothesized in previous.

错误:搜索内容不能为空,请输入英文关键词
错误:关键词超出字数限制,请精简
高级检索

How Long Could Winter Storms Last? Assessing Cold-Season Event-Based Extreme Precipitation Events Over the Conterminous U.S.

  • Toshi Matsui,
  • David M. Mocko

摘要

This study examines cold-season event-based extreme precipitation statistics over the conterminous U.S. using radar-gauge merged 1/8th-degree hourly precipitation data from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) Phase 2 datasets. Analysis is conducted during Northern Hemisphere cold seasons (October to March) from 1997 to 2015. At each 1/8th-degree grid, event-based statistics were derived for storm duration, total accumulated precipitation, and duration of dry period. Histograms of event-based statistics are used to estimate the thresholds for rare (above 99th percentile) and very rare (above 99.9th percentile) events. The very rare extreme events exceed 10 cm of accumulated precipitation over 68 h in Northwest region. Climatology maps for the rare long-lasting winter storm events depicts unique distributions of these events. Further, time series of these statistics maps revealed that Northern Great Plains, Midwest, and Northeast regions of the United States experienced above-normal extreme precipitation accumulation events after 2006. However, these events are neither accompanied with prolonged duration of precipitation events nor dry periods, as hypothesized in previous.