Ensemble Forecasting of Severe Storms Over Indian Region
摘要
The geographical location, topography and synoptic scenario cause Indian subcontinent to be a land prone to frequent thunderstorm activities during the pre-monsoon, monsoon and post-monsoon seasons. Ensemble forecasting has proved to be a successful way of dealing with the inherent uncertainties of weather and climate forecasts. NEPS-G and GEFS are the two high-resolution (12 km) models operational in India for generating global medium-range ensemble forecasts. The convective scale regional model at NCMRWF is designed specifically for prediction of extreme events over Indian region. The severe weather events like thunderstorms are likely to be increasing in frequency over next few decades projected under the climate change scenario. Early warning in medium, short and nowcasting range is therefore essential for storm preparedness and risk management. Different ensemble forecast products are tailored based on the high resolution global and regional EPS for prediction of severe weather events like that of thunderstorms and associated rainfall and lightning activities that can be useful for early warning.