Examining Brunei Darussalam’s Exports amid Developments in Global Value Chains
摘要
In recent years, the architecture of production has developed into a vast network of interconnected processes known as global value chains (GVCs). Under this configuration, tasks and activities involved in producing goods and services are shared among participating businesses, making entry into complex production processes more feasible for certain economies. This chapter explores the evolution of Brunei Darussalam’s participation in GVCs through a comprehensive analysis rooted in the input–output framework. Through an exhaustive decomposition of gross exports at the sectoral level using the Asian Development Bank’s multiregional input–output database, the study reveals that the heavy reliance of Brunei on the oil and gas industry for international trade has led to limitations in its position within GVCs. While the short-term trade balance is likely to benefit from global oil price increases amid post-COVID pandemic recovery and geopolitical events, such as the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Brunei faces an imminent need for economic structural transformation. The intrinsic volatility of oil prices and the exhaustion of reserves necessitate diversification efforts to sustain long-term economic growth and stability.