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An important timber species, Dalbergia latifolia, Indian rosewood, is essential to biodiversity and ecosystem stability in its natural settings. However, populations of Indian rosewood have experienced a sharp decline in the wild as a result of over-logging and habitat loss, raising conservation concerns. Understanding the habitat needs, quality, and adaptation tactics of this species under different climate change scenarios is essential for its conservation and better utilisation. We modelled the present scenario and future distribution of D. latifolia in India based on three representative concentration pathways (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5) for the years 2050s and 2070s using the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt). For the modelling procedure, 203 occurrence data and 10 WorldClim environmental factors were used. The model accuracy was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC), which shows that all the AUCs are greater than 0.91. The Jackknife test was used to determine the contributions of the selected environment variables through pairwise correlation. Isothermality (BIO03), Precipitation of Coldest Quarter (BIO19), Slope, and Mean Temperature of Driest Quarter (BIO09) play a key role in determining the suitability and distribution of D. latifolia across all three climatic scenarios. The results showed that the suitable areas for the current distribution of D. latifolia in India covered a total area of 231,648.5 km2 (7.05%), with an area of 1.35% (44,301.37 km2) predicted to be highly suitable. The current potential suitable habitats are mainly distributed in Karnataka (2.66%), Tamil Nadu (1.34%), Kerala (1.05%), Maharashtra (0.99%), and Uttar Pradesh (0.23%). Compared to the current distribution, our predictions of climate change impact on habitat suitability suggest that India’s total suitable area regions would expand under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 in the 2050s and 2070s by 8.97 and 8.61%. In this context, our study provides insights for aiding in the planning and management of conservation efforts of D. latifolia.

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MaxEnt Modelling for the Present Scenario and Predicting the Future Habitat Suitability of Dalbergia latifolia in India

  • 章节

  • 发表日期：

    2025年

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  • S. Lalitha,
  • P. Devamanikandan,
  • D. Thangamani,
  • R. Vasudevan,
  • K. R. Sasidharan,
  • T. Vamadevan,
  • Rekha R. Warrier

摘要

An important timber species, Dalbergia latifolia, Indian rosewood, is essential to biodiversity and ecosystem stability in its natural settings. However, populations of Indian rosewood have experienced a sharp decline in the wild as a result of over-logging and habitat loss, raising conservation concerns. Understanding the habitat needs, quality, and adaptation tactics of this species under different climate change scenarios is essential for its conservation and better utilisation. We modelled the present scenario and future distribution of D. latifolia in India based on three representative concentration pathways (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5) for the years 2050s and 2070s using the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt). For the modelling procedure, 203 occurrence data and 10 WorldClim environmental factors were used. The model accuracy was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC), which shows that all the AUCs are greater than 0.91. The Jackknife test was used to determine the contributions of the selected environment variables through pairwise correlation. Isothermality (BIO03), Precipitation of Coldest Quarter (BIO19), Slope, and Mean Temperature of Driest Quarter (BIO09) play a key role in determining the suitability and distribution of D. latifolia across all three climatic scenarios. The results showed that the suitable areas for the current distribution of D. latifolia in India covered a total area of 231,648.5 km2 (7.05%), with an area of 1.35% (44,301.37 km2) predicted to be highly suitable. The current potential suitable habitats are mainly distributed in Karnataka (2.66%), Tamil Nadu (1.34%), Kerala (1.05%), Maharashtra (0.99%), and Uttar Pradesh (0.23%). Compared to the current distribution, our predictions of climate change impact on habitat suitability suggest that India’s total suitable area regions would expand under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 in the 2050s and 2070s by 8.97 and 8.61%. In this context, our study provides insights for aiding in the planning and management of conservation efforts of D. latifolia.