Mode choice for cities with population less than 1 million is seldom studied as the complexity of commute which is witnessed in metro cities are often absent. However, the underlying behavior patterns in terms of choice in the modes are often governed by similar factors for a given similar set of alternatives to commute. In the current paper, the mode choice in the study region of Imphal is investigated. The investigation is based on deriving the utility of alternatives as obtained from the collected household data. A multinomial logit model (MNL) has been developed and the prediction accuracy, validation, direct, and cross elasticity as well as the acceptable/critical travel time cost and acceptable/critical distance of the trip has been evaluated. The acceptable travel time cost of the trip has been defined as the value at which a small change in travel time cost will affect the greatest number of trip makers and is computed based on fitting an appropriate polynomial to travel time cost distribution. The acceptable travel time cost of the various modes is in confirmation with the expectations as the car users having a highest value. The acceptable travel time cost of bus users is found to be higher than the two wheeler users as is seen in Value of Time specified in IRC SP 30 2019. The final MNL model developed has shown a better log likelihood than the constants only model. The absolute values of direct elasticity of the available alternatives for a 1% change in out of pocket costs in the final model indicate a relatively inelastic change in choice probabilities of the modes. The results indicate that public policies such as increase in the out of pocket costs or reduction in in-vehicle times has small effect on the usage and ridership. It also means that the revenues can be increased by raising fares/out of pocket costs.

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Investigating the Mode Choice for Work Trip Data of Imphal

  • S. Padma,
  • S. Velmurugan,
  • Ravindra Kumar,
  • Manoranjan Parida,
  • Madhu Errampalli,
  • Ravinder Kayitha

摘要

Mode choice for cities with population less than 1 million is seldom studied as the complexity of commute which is witnessed in metro cities are often absent. However, the underlying behavior patterns in terms of choice in the modes are often governed by similar factors for a given similar set of alternatives to commute. In the current paper, the mode choice in the study region of Imphal is investigated. The investigation is based on deriving the utility of alternatives as obtained from the collected household data. A multinomial logit model (MNL) has been developed and the prediction accuracy, validation, direct, and cross elasticity as well as the acceptable/critical travel time cost and acceptable/critical distance of the trip has been evaluated. The acceptable travel time cost of the trip has been defined as the value at which a small change in travel time cost will affect the greatest number of trip makers and is computed based on fitting an appropriate polynomial to travel time cost distribution. The acceptable travel time cost of the various modes is in confirmation with the expectations as the car users having a highest value. The acceptable travel time cost of bus users is found to be higher than the two wheeler users as is seen in Value of Time specified in IRC SP 30 2019. The final MNL model developed has shown a better log likelihood than the constants only model. The absolute values of direct elasticity of the available alternatives for a 1% change in out of pocket costs in the final model indicate a relatively inelastic change in choice probabilities of the modes. The results indicate that public policies such as increase in the out of pocket costs or reduction in in-vehicle times has small effect on the usage and ridership. It also means that the revenues can be increased by raising fares/out of pocket costs.