Analysis of the Pathways to Achieving “Dual Attainments” in Zhengzhou City
摘要
This chapter delves into the “dual attainments” scenario within the context of comprehensive service-oriented cities, using Zhengzhou City as a case study. Through a meticulous examination encompassing the overview of Zhengzhou City, the prevailing environmental air quality conditions, the characteristics of atmospheric pollutant emissions, and the stipulated deadlines for achieving air quality standards, pathways are proposed for Zhengzhou City to attain air quality compliance based on urban emission inventories and model simulations. Simultaneously, the chapter conducts an analysis of the status of peak carbon emissions within the framework of air quality standard attainment. According to model calculations, achieving air quality compliance necessitates significant reductions in emissions of various pollutants. Specifically, reductions of 60%, 70%, 40%, 65%, and 50% respectively for SO2, NOx, NH3, primary PM2.5, and VOCs relative to their baseline levels in 2017 are deemed necessary. These reductions are projected to bring atmospheric pollutant emissions in line with the environmental capacity required for compliance. It is anticipated that by 2028, except for O3, the concentrations of PM2.5, PM10, SO2, CO, and NO2 will meet the Grade II national standards for air quality. Additional coordinated measures aimed at reducing VOCs emissions are foreseen to bring O3 concentrations into compliance by 2035. Regarding peak carbon emissions, with the target of achieving air quality compliance by 2028, carbon emissions are expected to reach their peak in 2025, after which a gradual decline is projected.