Graham Allison was among the scholars who was concerned about the rise of China and its influence on the international order and the future of the world, so in his “Destined for War,” he depended on Thucydides view of the Peloponnesian War and his statement that “it was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made the war inevitable” to analyze the effect of the rise of China on world politics. Based on that, Allison suggested the term “Thucydides trap,” which refers to the natural, inevitable discombobulation that occurs when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power. He stated that the world has never seen anything like the rapid tectonic shift in the global balance of power created by the rise of China. He considers that China’s economic development is transforming it into a formidable political and military competitor. So, he considers that the defining question about global order is whether China and the United States can escape Thucydides’s trap. With analogy to historical examples, he argued that over the past 500 years, in 16 cases a major rising power has threatened to displace a ruling power; in twelve of them, the result was war. He argues that war between China and the United States is possible and even more likely; however, he also states that war is not inevitable.

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The Competition and the Myth of Thucydides’s Trap

  • Amr Mohieeldin

摘要

Graham Allison was among the scholars who was concerned about the rise of China and its influence on the international order and the future of the world, so in his “Destined for War,” he depended on Thucydides view of the Peloponnesian War and his statement that “it was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made the war inevitable” to analyze the effect of the rise of China on world politics. Based on that, Allison suggested the term “Thucydides trap,” which refers to the natural, inevitable discombobulation that occurs when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power. He stated that the world has never seen anything like the rapid tectonic shift in the global balance of power created by the rise of China. He considers that China’s economic development is transforming it into a formidable political and military competitor. So, he considers that the defining question about global order is whether China and the United States can escape Thucydides’s trap. With analogy to historical examples, he argued that over the past 500 years, in 16 cases a major rising power has threatened to displace a ruling power; in twelve of them, the result was war. He argues that war between China and the United States is possible and even more likely; however, he also states that war is not inevitable.