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We examine whether the average of multiple forecasts performs better than each forecast in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Focusing on a few real-time forecasts for the sixth and seventh infection waves of 2022 in Japan, we find that the forecast average is often associated with lower—sometimes substantially lower—root mean squared errors than each forecast in both infection waves.

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Forecasting COVID-19 Infection with Model Averaging: A Real-Time Evaluation

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年

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  • Shotaro Beppu,
  • Somei Miyashita,
  • Taisuke Nakata

摘要

We examine whether the average of multiple forecasts performs better than each forecast in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Focusing on a few real-time forecasts for the sixth and seventh infection waves of 2022 in Japan, we find that the forecast average is often associated with lower—sometimes substantially lower—root mean squared errors than each forecast in both infection waves.