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We present a real-time simulation analysis that investigated the effects of increasing the number of foreign visitors on the spread of COVID-19 in Japan in the summer of 2022. Using a two-group SIR model, we found that the border reopening would worsen infection outcomes non-trivially but that it would not significantly alter the overall contours of infection outcomes. We also found that the value of a statistical life that could justify the status quo of not reopening the border was quite high.

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The Effects of Reopening the Border on COVID-19 Infection: A Simulation Study for Japan in the Summer of 2022

  • 章节

  • 发表日期：

    2025年

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  • Asako Chiba,
  • Alexander Magro,
  • Taisuke Nakata,
  • Wataru Okamoto,
  • Dai Sasaki,
  • Hiroyuki Uneya

摘要

We present a real-time simulation analysis that investigated the effects of increasing the number of foreign visitors on the spread of COVID-19 in Japan in the summer of 2022. Using a two-group SIR model, we found that the border reopening would worsen infection outcomes non-trivially but that it would not significantly alter the overall contours of infection outcomes. We also found that the value of a statistical life that could justify the status quo of not reopening the border was quite high.