This chapter utilizes GDP indices and growth indices of the three major industries for 31 provinces in China from 1992 to 2022, along with data on energy consumption per unit of GDP for 30 provinces from 2005 to 2022. A copula-based spatiotemporal semi-parametric model is used to forecast these indicators. The findings reveal significant spatial correlations in economic development, industry growth, and energy efficiency across provinces. Economic growth is primarily driven by the rise and development of the secondary and tertiary industries. As the economy advances, energy efficiency has been steadily improving, with the energy-saving and emission reduction policies introduced in the 12th Five-Year Plan marking a milestone in this progress. However, energy efficiency in the southwestern and northwestern regions of China lags significantly behind other areas. Importantly, the forecasts suggest that future economic development will be more volatile compared to past trends, with energy efficiency expected to undergo two significant jumps. The southwestern and northwestern regions, which currently have lower energy efficiency, are projected to continue falling behind other regions.

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Energy and Economic Forecasting

  • Ya Xiao,
  • Xiaohang Ren

摘要

This chapter utilizes GDP indices and growth indices of the three major industries for 31 provinces in China from 1992 to 2022, along with data on energy consumption per unit of GDP for 30 provinces from 2005 to 2022. A copula-based spatiotemporal semi-parametric model is used to forecast these indicators. The findings reveal significant spatial correlations in economic development, industry growth, and energy efficiency across provinces. Economic growth is primarily driven by the rise and development of the secondary and tertiary industries. As the economy advances, energy efficiency has been steadily improving, with the energy-saving and emission reduction policies introduced in the 12th Five-Year Plan marking a milestone in this progress. However, energy efficiency in the southwestern and northwestern regions of China lags significantly behind other areas. Importantly, the forecasts suggest that future economic development will be more volatile compared to past trends, with energy efficiency expected to undergo two significant jumps. The southwestern and northwestern regions, which currently have lower energy efficiency, are projected to continue falling behind other regions.