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This chapter introduces the background and development of carbon markets and investigates the carbon price predictability based on several carbon determinants. The shrinkage method and dynamic model averaging (DMA) approach are employed to identify the switching process among those determinants. The empirical evidence suggests that the total numbers of important carbon determinants as well as their importance do change over time. The DMA model features these variations and therefore generates accurate carbon price forecasts.

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Forecasting Carbon Prices

  • 章节

  • 发表日期：

    2025年

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  • Zhikai Zhang,
  • Qunwei Wang,
  • Danyan Wen,
  • Jihong Xiao

摘要

This chapter introduces the background and development of carbon markets and investigates the carbon price predictability based on several carbon determinants. The shrinkage method and dynamic model averaging (DMA) approach are employed to identify the switching process among those determinants. The empirical evidence suggests that the total numbers of important carbon determinants as well as their importance do change over time. The DMA model features these variations and therefore generates accurate carbon price forecasts.