A random walk without drift (RW) is recognized as the most daunting benchmark in forecasting exchange rates. We conduct a comprehensive review of the pertinent literature and summarize the main variables, models, and evaluation methods of exchange rate forecasting. Many economic fundamentals may be superior to the RW model in-sample, but not as well as they do out-of-sample. Given the ability of crude oil fluctuations to provide forward-looking information on future economic fluctuations, a growing number of academics are concentrating on researching the connection between exchange rates and crude oil. Our focus lies in assessing the predictability of energy-related information, particularly crude oil, on exchange rates, and we provide empirical support based on latest data.

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Energy Information and Exchange Rate Forecasting

  • Yuqing Feng,
  • Chaojian Wei,
  • Xiaoxia Zhao,
  • Linxing Tian

摘要

A random walk without drift (RW) is recognized as the most daunting benchmark in forecasting exchange rates. We conduct a comprehensive review of the pertinent literature and summarize the main variables, models, and evaluation methods of exchange rate forecasting. Many economic fundamentals may be superior to the RW model in-sample, but not as well as they do out-of-sample. Given the ability of crude oil fluctuations to provide forward-looking information on future economic fluctuations, a growing number of academics are concentrating on researching the connection between exchange rates and crude oil. Our focus lies in assessing the predictability of energy-related information, particularly crude oil, on exchange rates, and we provide empirical support based on latest data.