This chapter analyzes how the rise of IS and the conflicts incited by it affected people’s perception regarding the extent to which reconciliation with the former regime should be supported and how much they should be included in the new nation-building. The analysis of pooled data from public opinion surveys empirically reveals that as the intensity of the conflict increases, there is a tendency to become negative towards reconciliation with the former regime. However, this negative attitude towards reconciliation is limited to certain social groups and does not persist over a long period. Indeed, in regions where the influence of IS are strong, there is a tendency to be reluctant towards reconciliation with the former regime. Nevertheless, the stance towards reconciliation with the former regime varies considerably among sectarian and ethnic groups. Furthermore, it is empirically demonstrated that the negative impact on reconciliation brought about by IS is mitigated over time. Therefore, the chapter concludes that the impact of the significant phase of conflict was spatially and temporally limited, and thus the conflict did not destroy the framework of the state or the nation.

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Did IS Promote the Division of Nation? Depicting the Impact of Conflict from Support for Reconciliation with Former Ba’ath Party

  • Dai Yamao

摘要

This chapter analyzes how the rise of IS and the conflicts incited by it affected people’s perception regarding the extent to which reconciliation with the former regime should be supported and how much they should be included in the new nation-building. The analysis of pooled data from public opinion surveys empirically reveals that as the intensity of the conflict increases, there is a tendency to become negative towards reconciliation with the former regime. However, this negative attitude towards reconciliation is limited to certain social groups and does not persist over a long period. Indeed, in regions where the influence of IS are strong, there is a tendency to be reluctant towards reconciliation with the former regime. Nevertheless, the stance towards reconciliation with the former regime varies considerably among sectarian and ethnic groups. Furthermore, it is empirically demonstrated that the negative impact on reconciliation brought about by IS is mitigated over time. Therefore, the chapter concludes that the impact of the significant phase of conflict was spatially and temporally limited, and thus the conflict did not destroy the framework of the state or the nation.