This paper analyzes the main uncertainties faced by commercial banks at the present stage, and the impact of these uncertainties on the operation and management of commercial banks. The risk of decoupling between China and the West leads to difficulties in the financial assets and cross-border trade of commercial banks; the continuous decline of China’s economy puts pressure on the credit operation and income improvement of commercial banks; the continuous reform of financial regulation mainly affects the development of intermediate business of commercial banks; the continuous emergence of new competitors leads to the acceleration of the iterative replacement of commercial banks and the continuous reduction of market share. Based on the above impact analysis, countermeasures are put forward to transform the crisis into the potential for development, find the certainty in the uncertainty, and improve the operation and management ability and competitiveness of commercial banks.