This chapter explores the possibility of BRICS challenging EU dominance in the Balkans, in the case of Serbia. Serbia, having held the status of an EU candidate since 2012, presents a noteworthy and distinctive case study due to its status as the sole EU candidate country where BRICS enjoys greater public support than the EU. However, BRICS support seemingly does not translate into electoral outcomes, as the latest general elections produced only two parliamentary parties that oppose the EU. This chapter explains this disparity by analysing Serbia’s political scene and how Vučić and his ruling SNS successfully managed to keep Serbia on the EU path, benefiting from its market and values, while relying on Russia’s energy and foreign policy support and China’s investments. However, the war in Ukraine brought two challenges to Vučić’s balancing foreign policy: alignment with the EU’s Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) which includes imposing sanctions on Russia, and implementation of the European Proposal that requires Serbia to accept Kosovo’s sovereignty. Serbia under Vučić’s rule maintains its strategy of benefiting from both worlds, despite the challenges, but the success of such an approach largely hinges on the EU’s countermeasures. Although Brussels officials exert a certain pressure on Serbia’s regime, they also perceive Vučić as the sole Serbian politician with sufficient popularity to enact specific policies unpopular among the domestic constituency; thus, such pressure is not sufficient to jeopardise Serbia’s economic development, alongside the diplomatic balancing act, the major source of Vučić’s popularity. Therefore, it is difficult to see a change in Serbia’s EU course in the foreseeable future. Nonetheless, if economic benefits start to wane, Serbia may prioritise the question of Kosovo and its Eastern allies over EU accession.

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BRICS Challenging the EU in the Balkans: The Case of Serbia

  • Andrej Semenov

摘要

This chapter explores the possibility of BRICS challenging EU dominance in the Balkans, in the case of Serbia. Serbia, having held the status of an EU candidate since 2012, presents a noteworthy and distinctive case study due to its status as the sole EU candidate country where BRICS enjoys greater public support than the EU. However, BRICS support seemingly does not translate into electoral outcomes, as the latest general elections produced only two parliamentary parties that oppose the EU. This chapter explains this disparity by analysing Serbia’s political scene and how Vučić and his ruling SNS successfully managed to keep Serbia on the EU path, benefiting from its market and values, while relying on Russia’s energy and foreign policy support and China’s investments. However, the war in Ukraine brought two challenges to Vučić’s balancing foreign policy: alignment with the EU’s Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) which includes imposing sanctions on Russia, and implementation of the European Proposal that requires Serbia to accept Kosovo’s sovereignty. Serbia under Vučić’s rule maintains its strategy of benefiting from both worlds, despite the challenges, but the success of such an approach largely hinges on the EU’s countermeasures. Although Brussels officials exert a certain pressure on Serbia’s regime, they also perceive Vučić as the sole Serbian politician with sufficient popularity to enact specific policies unpopular among the domestic constituency; thus, such pressure is not sufficient to jeopardise Serbia’s economic development, alongside the diplomatic balancing act, the major source of Vučić’s popularity. Therefore, it is difficult to see a change in Serbia’s EU course in the foreseeable future. Nonetheless, if economic benefits start to wane, Serbia may prioritise the question of Kosovo and its Eastern allies over EU accession.