Precision Pollination in Apple Orchards: A Pollination Model for Calculating Importance of Apple Flowering Stages for Yield Maximization
摘要
Apples like other fruits orchards require pollination especially by bees and other insects for the pollen to move from the flower to flower for a good crop yield. However, with decline in pollinators population due to climate change, pesticide and diseases affecting bees and bee hives, the apple flower has a serious shortage of pollination resources worldwide. This scarcity calls for optimization of the available pollinators to ensure that there is good apple production. Successful pollination depends on the time that corresponds to the development stage of the apple flowers, but in recent methods, no systematic approach to timing optimization has been developed. In an effort to overcome this hurdle, this study presents a novel Pollination Importance Index (PII) model. The PII model defines specific growth stages (budding, early bloom, full bloom, flower shedding, and fruiting) in which each stage is characterized by specific attributes such as stage weight, attraction factors, age penalties, and nectar decay rates. These attributes enable simulation of flower receptivity and resource availability in real time, in response to real time environmental conditions, for example, temperature and humidity. This model underlies its ability to calculate penalties when environmental metrics are outside of optimal ranges, and in turn affect critical factors such as flower receptivity and pollinator activity. It also assesses biotic stress, by examining how humidity affects pest and disease prevalence, both of which are important to the health and pollination potential of apple flowers. The model normalizes dynamic weights across growth stages and computes the Pollination Importance Index (PII), taking a holistic evaluation of flower readiness for pollination. By synthesizing flower receptivity, environmental resource availability, pollinator behavior and stress levels, the PII automates for precise pollination importance percentages for growth stages of apple flower for effective pollination. PII approach provides a data driven way for growing operations to continually optimize their orchard management practices, based on their environmental sensitivities and biological growth processes. It can improve fruit set rates, pollination efficiency and resource allocation. PII model presents a major advance for precision horticulture, enabling growers to overcome the uncertainties of environment and pollinator activities for higher productivity. Highlights