Travel for shopping and leisure in daily life is facilitated by various means of transportation. However, the level of public transportation services varies regionally. In areas with low service levels, there may be cases where trips are not realized, even though people originally intended to take them. This study focuses on unrealized trips for shopping and leisure purposes. A web-based questionnaire survey was conducted in Aichi Prefecture, Japan, which comprises urban, suburban, and rural areas. According to the survey, although many respondents reported unrealized trips, 73.2% have no unrealized trips for either purpose. Therefore, we adopt a zero-inflated bivariate ordered probit model to investigate the factors causing unrealized shopping and leisure trips. The results indicate that the frequency of unrealized trips is higher for people with children under elementary school age and for those without a driver's license. These findings show the need to improve the public transportation services.

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Study on Unrealized Shopping and Leisure Trips with Zero-Inflated Bivariate Ordered Probit Model

  • Genichiro Nakagaki,
  • Tomio Miwa

摘要

Travel for shopping and leisure in daily life is facilitated by various means of transportation. However, the level of public transportation services varies regionally. In areas with low service levels, there may be cases where trips are not realized, even though people originally intended to take them. This study focuses on unrealized trips for shopping and leisure purposes. A web-based questionnaire survey was conducted in Aichi Prefecture, Japan, which comprises urban, suburban, and rural areas. According to the survey, although many respondents reported unrealized trips, 73.2% have no unrealized trips for either purpose. Therefore, we adopt a zero-inflated bivariate ordered probit model to investigate the factors causing unrealized shopping and leisure trips. The results indicate that the frequency of unrealized trips is higher for people with children under elementary school age and for those without a driver's license. These findings show the need to improve the public transportation services.