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The growing population has a significant impact on traffic movements in a given area. Increased mobility due to people’s basic needs causes transportation issues if not handled appropriately. Hence, planning a transportation system to analyze trip distribution depicted as an Origin Destination Matrix (O–D Matrix), becomes an imperative. This study employs the gravity model with the Maximum Entropy estimation method and the negative exponential resistance function. The User’s Equilibrium method is used for matrix loading onto the road network. The objectives of this research are to determine the value of the parameter β, the validity of the data (R2), and the pattern of trip distribution. Research population is located at the Regency of Boyolali which is composed of 8 internal zones and 7 external zones. It generated a value of the beta-parameter of 0.0765 and an R2-coefficient of validity of 0.9083. The foreseen total trip quotient of the village of Boyolali in 2023 would be 12 million. 354 pcu/h. External–external movements accounted for the largest portion at 44.64%, whereas internal–internal movements had the smallest at 9.51%.

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Predicting Travel Patterns in Boyolali Regency with Maximum Entropy Method

  • 会议论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年

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  • Widi Hartono,
  • Dewi Handayani,
  • Dhani Virgiawan Septiasworo,
  • Nadya Fithrotul Ulya,
  • Riani Lestari,
  • Josephin Onesifera Rum

摘要

The growing population has a significant impact on traffic movements in a given area. Increased mobility due to people’s basic needs causes transportation issues if not handled appropriately. Hence, planning a transportation system to analyze trip distribution depicted as an Origin Destination Matrix (O–D Matrix), becomes an imperative. This study employs the gravity model with the Maximum Entropy estimation method and the negative exponential resistance function. The User’s Equilibrium method is used for matrix loading onto the road network. The objectives of this research are to determine the value of the parameter β, the validity of the data (R2), and the pattern of trip distribution. Research population is located at the Regency of Boyolali which is composed of 8 internal zones and 7 external zones. It generated a value of the beta-parameter of 0.0765 and an R2-coefficient of validity of 0.9083. The foreseen total trip quotient of the village of Boyolali in 2023 would be 12 million. 354 pcu/h. External–external movements accounted for the largest portion at 44.64%, whereas internal–internal movements had the smallest at 9.51%.