Return-Forecasting Power of Macroeconomic Indicators on Stock Markets: Evidence from Australia, China, Brazil and Britain
摘要
This paper assesses the predictive power of macroeconomic indicators on stock returns in Australia, China, Brazil, and Britain from an investor’s perspective over the period from 2000 to 2022. It examines the impact of key factors such as interest rates, pandemics, economic cycles, and global financial crises on market volatility. Utilizing Augmented Dickey-Fuller tests to ensure the stability of time series data, the study employs univariate regression analysis to determine the statistical significance of these indicators. By challenging the Efficient Market Hypothesis, the research identifies specific macroeconomic signals, such as inflation rates, GDP growth, and exchange rate volatility, capable of forecasting stock returns. Additionally, the study explores the effects of investor sentiment and market liquidity on stock market performance. These findings provide valuable insights for investors and policymakers, highlighting the influence of macroeconomic factors on stock markets and offering a deeper understanding of how these elements can guide strategic investment decisions and economic policy formulations.