Coping with climate change, complex interaction and response of people and nature to vulnerability and hazards are inextricably linked in the low lying islands of Sundarban. Risks from persistent water related threats i.e. regional sea level rise, storm surges, erosion, flooding, breaching, salinization have contributed to the loss of sustainable livelihood and regulating ecosystem services. This study has explored the linkage between factors of vulnerability of socio-ecological system and functionality of adaptive strategies to exacerbate the resilience through descriptive and inferential statistics and geospatial techniques. The average decadal percent changes in the area accounts for –4.45% for the period 1999–2009 and the same is –11.33% for 2009–2019. Multivariate analysis shows a significant regression of 0.02 (lowest pressure), + 2.93 (storm surges), + 0.01 (wind speed) and storm surge, here, is a significant predictor. In terms of socio-ecological functions and services 25 mouzas occupying 68% area and 70% population are deficient in overall development status. Gini coefficients of health and embankment are reflecting large gaps while adaptive measures of cyclone shelter and mangrove plantation are showing utter inadequacy. 14 identified mouzas require immediate intervention. Findings of this study would provide deeper understanding of empirical linkages of ever increasing vulnerability to changing climate along with particular intercession of building strategic resilience against poor socio-ecological profile and livelihood security of the marginalized population living in similar low lying islands.

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Assessment of Functionalities of Adaptive Capacity and Socio-Ecological Interdependencies: An Insight into Sagar Island of Sundarban, India

  • Aparna Bera,
  • Hirok Chaudhuri,
  • Kankana Seal

摘要

Coping with climate change, complex interaction and response of people and nature to vulnerability and hazards are inextricably linked in the low lying islands of Sundarban. Risks from persistent water related threats i.e. regional sea level rise, storm surges, erosion, flooding, breaching, salinization have contributed to the loss of sustainable livelihood and regulating ecosystem services. This study has explored the linkage between factors of vulnerability of socio-ecological system and functionality of adaptive strategies to exacerbate the resilience through descriptive and inferential statistics and geospatial techniques. The average decadal percent changes in the area accounts for –4.45% for the period 1999–2009 and the same is –11.33% for 2009–2019. Multivariate analysis shows a significant regression of 0.02 (lowest pressure), + 2.93 (storm surges), + 0.01 (wind speed) and storm surge, here, is a significant predictor. In terms of socio-ecological functions and services 25 mouzas occupying 68% area and 70% population are deficient in overall development status. Gini coefficients of health and embankment are reflecting large gaps while adaptive measures of cyclone shelter and mangrove plantation are showing utter inadequacy. 14 identified mouzas require immediate intervention. Findings of this study would provide deeper understanding of empirical linkages of ever increasing vulnerability to changing climate along with particular intercession of building strategic resilience against poor socio-ecological profile and livelihood security of the marginalized population living in similar low lying islands.