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This chapter presents the validity and probability of the IPSS projection while showing the projection method, changes in the vital events, and the contributions of social changes. This is because the accuracy and reliability of regional population projection results are of great concern to those who use them. We then divide Japan into metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas and discuss the accelerating population decline in the non-metropolitan areas and the rapid aging of the population in the metropolitan areas. Furthermore, the chapter’s conclusion is drawn by discussing the small difference in population change between the two types of areas over the long term.

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Future Subnational Populations and Their Implications Through “Regional Population Projections for Japan: 2015–2045”

  • 章节

  • 发表日期：

    2025年

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  • Hachiro Nishioka,
  • Yuji Esaki,
  • Shiro Koike,
  • Masakazu Yamauchi

摘要

This chapter presents the validity and probability of the IPSS projection while showing the projection method, changes in the vital events, and the contributions of social changes. This is because the accuracy and reliability of regional population projection results are of great concern to those who use them. We then divide Japan into metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas and discuss the accelerating population decline in the non-metropolitan areas and the rapid aging of the population in the metropolitan areas. Furthermore, the chapter’s conclusion is drawn by discussing the small difference in population change between the two types of areas over the long term.