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This chapter introduces the methodology used in the regional population projections that the IPSS released in 2018. After describing the framework of the population projections, we present the mortality model, the migration model, and the fertility model, including the thinking behind the setting of assumptions. In the 2018 regional population projections, for the first time this effort adopted a refined migration model with the probabilistic migration indicator inspired by the migration pool model. Accordingly, we provide a relatively detailed explanation for this migration model. Finally, we discuss the remaining challenges, mainly in regard to the migration model for the IPSS regional population projections.

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Outline of Methodology Used for Regional Population Projections for Japan from 2015 to 2045

  • 章节

  • 发表日期：

    2025年

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  • Hachiro Nishioka,
  • Yuji Esaki,
  • Shiro Koike,
  • Masakazu Yamauchi

摘要

This chapter introduces the methodology used in the regional population projections that the IPSS released in 2018. After describing the framework of the population projections, we present the mortality model, the migration model, and the fertility model, including the thinking behind the setting of assumptions. In the 2018 regional population projections, for the first time this effort adopted a refined migration model with the probabilistic migration indicator inspired by the migration pool model. Accordingly, we provide a relatively detailed explanation for this migration model. Finally, we discuss the remaining challenges, mainly in regard to the migration model for the IPSS regional population projections.