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This chapter traces the history of the subnational population projections officially released by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS) and its predecessor, the Institute of Population Problems (IPP), which operated under the Ministry of Health and Welfare (now the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare). Then, the accuracies of the IPP/IPSS’ official projections are considered. In our assessment of the accuracies of previous IPP/IPSS population projections for total population, we regard these projections as a forecast for future populations. To assess these accuracies in a wider context, the accuracies of the IPP/IPSS’ official projections are compared with those of subnational population projections provided by official statistical agencies in English-speaking countries and the EU. Finally, following these results, we discuss the applicability of the results of the IPP/IPSS subnational population projections.

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Official Regional Population Projections of Japan and Their Accuracy

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年

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  • Hachiro Nishioka,
  • Yuji Esaki,
  • Shiro Koike,
  • Masakazu Yamauchi

摘要

This chapter traces the history of the subnational population projections officially released by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS) and its predecessor, the Institute of Population Problems (IPP), which operated under the Ministry of Health and Welfare (now the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare). Then, the accuracies of the IPP/IPSS’ official projections are considered. In our assessment of the accuracies of previous IPP/IPSS population projections for total population, we regard these projections as a forecast for future populations. To assess these accuracies in a wider context, the accuracies of the IPP/IPSS’ official projections are compared with those of subnational population projections provided by official statistical agencies in English-speaking countries and the EU. Finally, following these results, we discuss the applicability of the results of the IPP/IPSS subnational population projections.