This chapter presents the results of crop yield predictions under future climate conditions in Japan. For nine crops, including soybeans, rice, and wheat, the author developed models using statistical methods (generalized additive model) based on historical meteorological and crop yield data, and predicted future yields at the municipal level across Japan. While process-based crop models are commonly used to predict crop yields, this chapter introduces a method that leverages crop yield data spanning both low and high latitudes to make predictions while also addressing the challenges of extrapolation. The chapter also explains the statistical methods used to quantify the potential effects of adaptation measures against climate change.

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Learn and Predict from Data: Statistical Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on Crop Production

  • Gen Sakurai

摘要

This chapter presents the results of crop yield predictions under future climate conditions in Japan. For nine crops, including soybeans, rice, and wheat, the author developed models using statistical methods (generalized additive model) based on historical meteorological and crop yield data, and predicted future yields at the municipal level across Japan. While process-based crop models are commonly used to predict crop yields, this chapter introduces a method that leverages crop yield data spanning both low and high latitudes to make predictions while also addressing the challenges of extrapolation. The chapter also explains the statistical methods used to quantify the potential effects of adaptation measures against climate change.