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This chapter explains the NIES2020 climate scenario used for climate change impact assessments in the S-18 Project. As impact projections at national and regional levels increasingly require high spatial resolution data, it has become essential to downscale climate scenarios to finer scales. In the S-18 Project, climate scenarios were downscaled to a 1-km grid covering all of Japan. Selecting the most appropriate climate models for the target region is also critical. This chapter outlines the concept, development process, and validation of NIES2020, designed to meet Japan’s specific needs. Additionally, we address the “hot model issue” observed in some CMIP6 models and the challenges associated with the SSP3-7.0 scenario. Through these discussions, we emphasize the importance of active dialogue and collaboration between climate scenario developers, impact assessment researchers, and policy-making researchers in evaluating climate change impacts and formulating effective countermeasures.

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Climate Change Scenarios for Impacts and Adaptation Research

  • 章节

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2025年

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  • Yasutaka Wakazuki,
  • Hideo Shiogama,
  • Noriko N. Ishizaki,
  • Michiya Hayashi

摘要

This chapter explains the NIES2020 climate scenario used for climate change impact assessments in the S-18 Project. As impact projections at national and regional levels increasingly require high spatial resolution data, it has become essential to downscale climate scenarios to finer scales. In the S-18 Project, climate scenarios were downscaled to a 1-km grid covering all of Japan. Selecting the most appropriate climate models for the target region is also critical. This chapter outlines the concept, development process, and validation of NIES2020, designed to meet Japan’s specific needs. Additionally, we address the “hot model issue” observed in some CMIP6 models and the challenges associated with the SSP3-7.0 scenario. Through these discussions, we emphasize the importance of active dialogue and collaboration between climate scenario developers, impact assessment researchers, and policy-making researchers in evaluating climate change impacts and formulating effective countermeasures.