A Statistical Model for Analyzing the Main Controlling Factors of Profile Control and Flooding Development
摘要
In response to the problem that conventional dynamic analysis methods for oil reservoirs cannot efficiently, systematically, and objectively utilize geologic and development data to comprehensively evaluate the main controlling factors and their influence laws of profile control and flooding development, the index system is divided into the hierarchical structure. The development performance parameters are integrated as injection efficiency of every single producer using reservoir engineering splitting method, while the formation property parameters are restructured by factor analysis. Therefore, a simultaneous model is derived by statistical methods of factor analysis and multiple linear regression analysis, which can eliminate the effect of multicollinearity between data on regression results, implement data dimensionality reduction and naming interpretation, and finally achieve phased quantitative analysis and evaluation. The case analysis results show that in the main slug phase of profile control and flooding, the vertical heterogeneity and injection efficiency are most affected, while the well layout, initial water cut, and pore characteristics have similar importance. In the subsequent water flooding phase, vertical heterogeneity has the greatest impact on oil production efficiency, and the injection efficiency has significant impacts on both oil increase and water cut decrease. By statistical principle analysis, test parameter constraints, and the verification of oilfield displacement laws and the well group production performance, the rationality of the simultaneous model results is demonstrated. The study provides an analysis model that can objectively and comprehensively analyze the factors affecting the development effect of profile control and flooding reservoirs, while fully considering the interactive effects between indices and comprehensively utilizing data.