Risk Assessment and Analysis of the Marine Environment for Ice Navigation in the Arctic Sea Routes
摘要
Under the background of global warming, the extent of Arctic sea ice is gradually shrinking, and the normalized navigation of Arctic shipping lanes has become possible. Nonetheless, substantial ice coverage persists and significantly jeopardizes the safety of passage. Based on the wind and sea ice data for recent ten years over the Arctic navigation area, the ice-free/light ice days index and the gale hazard index are built in the Northeast and Northwest Passage. The risk distributions of the natural environment related to the navigation safety are analyzed on the multiple time scales, which could provide recommendations for sailing zones and optimal time windows. The results indicate that both the ice-free/light ice days index and the gale hazard index exhibit a west-high and east-low distribution for the Northeast Passage and a two-side-high and middle-low distribution for the Northwest Passage. As revealed by the ice-free/light ice days index, the lower navigation risk areas are located in the Kara Sea and the Barents Sea for the Northeast Passage and in the vicinity of Davis Strait for the Northwest Passage. For the gale hazard index, the lower navigation risk areas occur in the coastal area of the Laptev Sea for the Northeast Passage and in the archipelago area of the central sea for the Northwest Passage. Furthermore, during July to October, both indices suggest the minor risk for the ship navigation in the nearshore areas of the Northeast and Northwest Passages.