Folding rudders are widely used in multiple aircraft platforms. Now the simulation analysis of folding rudders focuses on the calculation of structural strength and impact load, and lacks the analysis of the dynamic process of unfolding. In this paper, a 6-D simulation model of folding rudder aircraft is created, which includes the folding rudder dynamic model and the process of unfolding model. Before the Monte-Carlo simulation, several specified simulation deviation quantities are confirmed according to the probability design method and then the simulation results are analyzed. The simulation analysis method in this paper can be used to analyze the reliability, unfolding time and the angular velocity of the folding rudders fast and effectively. Following the accuracy of the simulation analysis will be improved through the further studying of exact modeling and probability design method.