Prediction of Upcoming Sales for New Home-Scale Businesses Making Handmade Bags with Time Series Analysis Method
摘要
To add insight and income, many housewives currently carry out small-scale home-based businesses that are carried out from home, where the business goals are different, one of which is to increase income from developing their hobbies. Dhandmade is one of the home businesses developed by a housewife which is the business making handmade bags. Developed from what was originally a hobby, then ventured to accept orders and began to develop. To estimate or predict the continuity of her home-scale business, Dhandmade dares to start a forecast to estimate the number of orders that will be received in the coming year. This research method uses a quantitative method through forecasting which will use Time Series Analysis using POM QM software. This method was chosen because it is quite simple for a home-scale business forecasting measure. Time series data can be seen as a representation of the real variables which usually have the same time interval. The data collection is obtained from bag sales data for the last year which is processed using the Microsoft Excel program to see the trend of bags order in a year and is also supported by literature studies to examine it. The results of the research show that there is a trend of stability in ordering the handmade bags in the coming year for Dhandmade and the Linear Trend method of the Time Series Analysis is the suitable method because it has the smallest error rate value for the prediction. This research result aims to obtain the best demand forecast based on historical data on Dhandmade bags production demand for the last year that can be used as information and reference in planning future production activities and establishing steps in continuing the production of handmade bags home-scale business.