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The Russia-Ukraine conflict and related geopolitical strategies, such as sanctions on Russian fossil fuel exports, have significant implications for global energy transitions and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Disruptions in energy supply chains affect energy production, prices, and consumption, influencing the pace of the global shift toward renewables. This chapter explores three scenarios: (S1) a price cap on Russian fossil fuel exports, (S2) a comprehensive embargo, and (S3) an alliance supply chain. Using the GTAP-E model, we quantify their effects on real GDP, GHG emissions, and energy transitions. The modeling results demonstrate that S1 promotes energy transitions by reducing fossil fuel shares, particularly coal, while S2 increases reliance on fossil fuels like coal and natural gas, hindering decarbonization efforts. S3 presents mixed impacts, with some nations reducing coal but increasing oil and gas consumption. These findings highlight the complexity of balancing energy security, economic stability, and environmental sustainability amidst geopolitical tensions. Policymakers must tailor energy transition strategies to regional contexts, balancing geopolitical and economic objectives with climate goals. International cooperation is critical to accelerating global decarbonization efforts while ensuring energy security.

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Geopolitics, Sanctions, and the Global Energy Transition: Assessing the Impacts of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict on Energy Markets and GHG Emissions

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年

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  • Xunpeng Shi,
  • Kejuan Sun,
  • Xiujian Peng,
  • Jinjun Xue,
  • Qian Sun

摘要

The Russia-Ukraine conflict and related geopolitical strategies, such as sanctions on Russian fossil fuel exports, have significant implications for global energy transitions and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Disruptions in energy supply chains affect energy production, prices, and consumption, influencing the pace of the global shift toward renewables. This chapter explores three scenarios: (S1) a price cap on Russian fossil fuel exports, (S2) a comprehensive embargo, and (S3) an alliance supply chain. Using the GTAP-E model, we quantify their effects on real GDP, GHG emissions, and energy transitions. The modeling results demonstrate that S1 promotes energy transitions by reducing fossil fuel shares, particularly coal, while S2 increases reliance on fossil fuels like coal and natural gas, hindering decarbonization efforts. S3 presents mixed impacts, with some nations reducing coal but increasing oil and gas consumption. These findings highlight the complexity of balancing energy security, economic stability, and environmental sustainability amidst geopolitical tensions. Policymakers must tailor energy transition strategies to regional contexts, balancing geopolitical and economic objectives with climate goals. International cooperation is critical to accelerating global decarbonization efforts while ensuring energy security.