Thailand Energy Scenario 2050: The Path to Carbon Neutrality
摘要
In this chapter the authors explore pathways to carbon neutrality in Thailand based on considerations including technical feasibility, cost-effectiveness, public and end-user acceptance, and regulatory and other policy constraints. Two scenarios are presented to this end, which we call Classic and Orchestra. Classic describes a primary emphasis on supply-side clean technology deployment to ensure energy supply security. By contrast, Orchestra represents comprehensive economic restructuring, demand-side management, decentralized power, and prosumer markets. Results show that either may achieve Thailand’s 2050 carbon neutrality target. While Orchestra requires active cooperation from various cross-cutting stakeholders, Classic primarily concerns itself with the energy sector, which poses particular risks regarding carbon offset demand. Scaling up cost-effective clean technologies already in use 56.0% under Classic and 70.6% under Orchestra will enable GHG reduction. Other options, including hydrogen, CCS/CCUS, carbon offsets, and carbon sinks are still highly uncertain and pose commercial development risks. Classic has an average marginal abatement cost of USD 81.6/tCO2, as opposed to USD65.6/tCO2 for Orchestra. Changing technology costs and fluctuations in carbon prices will bear close attention going forward.