Tunneling operations in modern construction demand meticulous evaluation of their impact on nearby structures. A primary concern is the potential for soil subsidence, which could damage adjacent buildings. Complicating matters is the challenge of accurately modeling such settlement and the consequent damage, a critical process for informed decision-making during construction projects. By employing Bayesian updating, we refine our models by acquiring posterior distributions for key parameters. We put forth an analytical method for profiling ground settlement and follow this by calculating the strain on an equivalent beam, which serves as a proxy for building damage. This results in a distribution of strain values that allows for an assessment of how varying certain length parameters affects the probability of maintaining a safe distance between the tunneling activities and the surrounding buildings. With this probabilistic approach, one can propose a recommended safety distance as a guideline for construction practices.