Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis of Himachal Pradesh, India: Using Updated Earthquake Catalogue
摘要
The seismic vulnerability of Himachal Pradesh, India, is a significant concern due to its complex geological setting and proximity to the active Himalayan region. This study conducted a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) using an earthquake catalogue covering 123 years (1900–2023) within a 350 km radius of 32.10° N, 77.56° E. The catalogue, comprising 1150 events, provides data on time, latitude, longitude, magnitude, and focal depth, with all magnitudes converted to moment magnitude (Mw) for consistency. After declustering dependent events using Reasenberg’s algorithm, the main dataset includes 734 earthquake events across four magnitude groups. The Gutenberg–Richter recurrence relation, essential for estimating the seismic hazard parameters, reveals earthquake counts of 126 (3.0 ≤ Mw ≤ 3.99), 497 (4.0 ≤ Mw ≤ 4.99), 96 (5.0 ≤ Mw ≤ 5.99) and 15 (Mw ≥ 6.0). Seismic hazard parameters include an a-value of 2.0, and b-value of 0.69, a regression coefficient of 0.91, and a magnitude completeness (Mc) of 3.1 Mw. Using the National Disaster Management Authority's ground motion prediction equation, PSHA estimates peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral accelerations (Sa) for 10 and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years. For a 475-year return period, the PGA is 0.22, the PSA at T = 0 s is 0.21, and the Sa at T = 1 s is 0.053. For a 2475-year return period, the PGA is 0.44, the Sa at T = 0 s is 0.46, and the Sa at T = 1 s is 0.123. The results are compared with Indian Standard Code 1893:2016 provisions and NDMA suggested hazard intensities and found that the obtained results agree well. This study enhances the understanding of Himachal Pradesh's seismic threat, aiding in risk mitigation and resilient infrastructure development, providing critical insights for disaster preparedness and informed decision-making in this seismic-prone region.