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Justification of seismic triggering of large prehistoric rockslides that originated on the slopes of anticlinal ridges armored by thick carbonate units has been performed by examples of the gigantic Seimareh rockslide in Zagros (Iran) and two structurally similar, though much smaller rockslides in Dagestan (Greater Caucasus, Russia). Such structural and geomorphic conditions allow precise reconstruction of the pre-slide topography of the studied sites, significantly increasing the reliability of their back analysis. Linear dimensions of landslides are much larger than the thickness of the siding block, which makes the simplified 2D numerical modeling of these slopes quite realistic. The pseudo-static analysis performed at the first step confirmed that the study slopes could not fail without strong earthquakes. However, further dynamic analysis performed by the use of the Newmark method allowed for the estimation of characteristics of strong motions that could result in the formation of rockslides that had converted into long-runout rock avalanches. Possible uncertainties and open problems are discussed as well.

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Justification of Seismic Origin of Large-Scale Prehistoric Rockslides and Rock Avalanches on the Anticlinal Ridges: Challenges and Solutions

  • 会议论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年

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  • Zieaoddin Shoaei,
  • Alexander Strom,
  • Igor Fomenko,
  • Oleg Zerkal

摘要

Justification of seismic triggering of large prehistoric rockslides that originated on the slopes of anticlinal ridges armored by thick carbonate units has been performed by examples of the gigantic Seimareh rockslide in Zagros (Iran) and two structurally similar, though much smaller rockslides in Dagestan (Greater Caucasus, Russia). Such structural and geomorphic conditions allow precise reconstruction of the pre-slide topography of the studied sites, significantly increasing the reliability of their back analysis. Linear dimensions of landslides are much larger than the thickness of the siding block, which makes the simplified 2D numerical modeling of these slopes quite realistic. The pseudo-static analysis performed at the first step confirmed that the study slopes could not fail without strong earthquakes. However, further dynamic analysis performed by the use of the Newmark method allowed for the estimation of characteristics of strong motions that could result in the formation of rockslides that had converted into long-runout rock avalanches. Possible uncertainties and open problems are discussed as well.