Coastlines in the world are dynamic, where shoreline change occurs due to various natural and anthropogenic factors. Accurate shoreline data is required to design coastal protection structures, identify vulnerable areas, and for coastal developmental plans. Erosion has been a major hazard along the coast of Kerala since the last century. As the population near the coastal areas increases daily, assessment and forecasting shoreline changes are essential for effective protection plans. In the present study, shoreline assessment for 33 years (1990–2022) and forecasting of future shorelines is carried out for the Kozhikode coast, located in the northern part of Kerala. The Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) is used for shoreline assessment and prediction. Satellite images from Resourcesat 2, Cartosat 1, Landsat 5 and 8 are used in the study. The maximum likelihood supervised image classification technique is used to classify land and water to obtain the shoreline and the accuracy of the extracted shoreline is tested by comparing it with measured data for the same period. The shoreline change rate for 33 years is calculated using the End Point Rate (EPR) and Linear Regression Rate (LRR) methods in DSAS. Based on the shoreline change rate values obtained from DSAS analysis, the location is classified into seven classes (very high, high, moderate erosion, stable, moderate, high and very high accreting coast). The results show a maximum erosion rate of 8.35 m/year and similarly maximum accretion rate of 5.9 m/year. The forecasting for the next 20 years has been done using a validated Kalman filter model. The results show that 30% of the coastal length is estimated to be under very high and high erosion by 2042 in the Kozhikode district.

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Assessment and Prediction of Shoreline Change Along the Kozhikode Coast, Kerala, India

  • K. Saikrishnan,
  • K. V. Anand,
  • V. Agilan

摘要

Coastlines in the world are dynamic, where shoreline change occurs due to various natural and anthropogenic factors. Accurate shoreline data is required to design coastal protection structures, identify vulnerable areas, and for coastal developmental plans. Erosion has been a major hazard along the coast of Kerala since the last century. As the population near the coastal areas increases daily, assessment and forecasting shoreline changes are essential for effective protection plans. In the present study, shoreline assessment for 33 years (1990–2022) and forecasting of future shorelines is carried out for the Kozhikode coast, located in the northern part of Kerala. The Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) is used for shoreline assessment and prediction. Satellite images from Resourcesat 2, Cartosat 1, Landsat 5 and 8 are used in the study. The maximum likelihood supervised image classification technique is used to classify land and water to obtain the shoreline and the accuracy of the extracted shoreline is tested by comparing it with measured data for the same period. The shoreline change rate for 33 years is calculated using the End Point Rate (EPR) and Linear Regression Rate (LRR) methods in DSAS. Based on the shoreline change rate values obtained from DSAS analysis, the location is classified into seven classes (very high, high, moderate erosion, stable, moderate, high and very high accreting coast). The results show a maximum erosion rate of 8.35 m/year and similarly maximum accretion rate of 5.9 m/year. The forecasting for the next 20 years has been done using a validated Kalman filter model. The results show that 30% of the coastal length is estimated to be under very high and high erosion by 2042 in the Kozhikode district.