Consumption is a very important link in the process of social reproduction, which is divided into production consumption and personal consumption. Production consumption refers to the consumption of materials in the production process, including the consumption of human labor and the consumption of raw materials. Personal consumption refers to the use of produced material and spiritual products to meet people’s needs. The essence of consumption is actually an act of purposeful consumption of material or intangible materials. People’s consumption concepts change at different ages, and their purchasing power changes accordingly. If people are more inclined to consume, then their purchasing power becomes stronger. If people do not like consumption, their purchasing power weakens accordingly. The strength of purchasing power is very important for economic development. With strong purchasing power, the potential for economic development is strong. Therefore, the relationship between people’s consumption age and purchasing power can effectively understand the economic development potential. PVAR (Panel Vector Autoregression) can effectively solve the problem of individual heterogeneity by using panel data, taking into account the individual and time effects. Predictive modeling of the relationship between consumer age and purchasing power using the PVAR model can effectively exclude individual variability and make the resulting results more accurate. This paper investigated the consumption data of residents aged 14–66 from 2015 to 2019 by examining the PVAR and analyzing the relationship between the age of consumption and the purchasing power of residents. The results showed that the PVAR model could analyze the consumption data of residents and predict the relationship between the age of residents’ consumption and their purchasing power, which rose and then fell as the age of residents’ consumption grows, reaching a maximum at the stage of 18–26 years old, accounting for about 35% of residents, and then slowly declined. The age group with strong purchasing power of residents was 18–40 years old, accounting for about 60% of residents, and, with the development of the times, the purchasing power of residents in 2019 was significantly higher than that of residents in 2015.

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Predictive Modeling of Relationship Between Residents’ Consumption Age and Purchasing Power Based on PVAR Model

  • Lin Hao

摘要

Consumption is a very important link in the process of social reproduction, which is divided into production consumption and personal consumption. Production consumption refers to the consumption of materials in the production process, including the consumption of human labor and the consumption of raw materials. Personal consumption refers to the use of produced material and spiritual products to meet people’s needs. The essence of consumption is actually an act of purposeful consumption of material or intangible materials. People’s consumption concepts change at different ages, and their purchasing power changes accordingly. If people are more inclined to consume, then their purchasing power becomes stronger. If people do not like consumption, their purchasing power weakens accordingly. The strength of purchasing power is very important for economic development. With strong purchasing power, the potential for economic development is strong. Therefore, the relationship between people’s consumption age and purchasing power can effectively understand the economic development potential. PVAR (Panel Vector Autoregression) can effectively solve the problem of individual heterogeneity by using panel data, taking into account the individual and time effects. Predictive modeling of the relationship between consumer age and purchasing power using the PVAR model can effectively exclude individual variability and make the resulting results more accurate. This paper investigated the consumption data of residents aged 14–66 from 2015 to 2019 by examining the PVAR and analyzing the relationship between the age of consumption and the purchasing power of residents. The results showed that the PVAR model could analyze the consumption data of residents and predict the relationship between the age of residents’ consumption and their purchasing power, which rose and then fell as the age of residents’ consumption grows, reaching a maximum at the stage of 18–26 years old, accounting for about 35% of residents, and then slowly declined. The age group with strong purchasing power of residents was 18–40 years old, accounting for about 60% of residents, and, with the development of the times, the purchasing power of residents in 2019 was significantly higher than that of residents in 2015.