Hydrologic Sensitivity of Himalayan Slopes: Pre- and Post-rainfall LEM (Morgenstern–Price) Evaluation in Uttarakhand
摘要
This study evaluates rainfall-induced changes in slope stability across representative corridors of Uttarakhand—Rishikesh, Chamoli, Kathgodam, Karnaprayag, and Bageshwar—using SLOPE/W with the Morgenstern–Price limit-equilibrium formulation. Fourteen field-mapped cross-sections were modeled in 2-D with site-specific geometry (height, dip direction/angle) and Mohr–Coulomb strength parameters (unit weight, cohesion, friction angle). Two hydrologic scenarios were analysed for each section: a pre-rainfall (“dry”) case with low pore-water pressures and a post-rainfall (“wet”) case represented by a raised phreatic surface or equivalent pore-pressure increase. Factors of Safety (FoS) computed by a dense entry–exit slip-surface search show strong spatial contrasts and varied hydrologic sensitivity. Most Rishikesh sections are persistently unstable (FoS < 1.0) except one stable site, Chamoli exhibits transitional behavior with one slope (S5) tipping from stable (FoS ≈ 1.000) to unstable (FoS ≈ 0.999) under saturation, Kathgodam remains robustly stable in both states, and Karnaprayag as well as Bageshwar are consistently below unity regardless of rainfall. Although FoS shifts between dry and wet conditions are generally modest, small changes near the threshold are decisive for classification and risk.