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This study quantifies the potential impacts of climate change on the wave climate of the Bay of Bengal by employing the Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) numerical modeling framework. The model was set up to investigate waves generated by the Tropical Cyclone Vardah along the east coast of India, with simulations validated with field measurements. Two whitecapping formulations in the SWAN model were tested, with one based on mean spectral steepness exhibiting better results than the local spectral steepness method. Shallow water effects like bottom friction and triad interactions were found to be insignificant. The model demonstrated high accuracy under both normal and extreme conditions, as evidenced by the strong agreement between simulated and buoy-measured significant wave heights, with correlation coefficients of 0.90 and 0.96 for deep and shallow waters respectively. The intensity of wave climate is then analyzed for the current and three different future climatic conditions, viz., Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5. The highest wave activity is projected for Far Future RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5. A delay in landfall is observed for different RCP scenarios due to the decrease in translation speed of cyclones, leading to sustained wave activity.

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Wave climate projection under current and future scenarios

  • 章节

  • 发表日期：

    2026年

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  • S. Sangeetha,
  • Vengadesan Palanimanickam,
  • S. A. Sannasiraj

摘要

This study quantifies the potential impacts of climate change on the wave climate of the Bay of Bengal by employing the Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) numerical modeling framework. The model was set up to investigate waves generated by the Tropical Cyclone Vardah along the east coast of India, with simulations validated with field measurements. Two whitecapping formulations in the SWAN model were tested, with one based on mean spectral steepness exhibiting better results than the local spectral steepness method. Shallow water effects like bottom friction and triad interactions were found to be insignificant. The model demonstrated high accuracy under both normal and extreme conditions, as evidenced by the strong agreement between simulated and buoy-measured significant wave heights, with correlation coefficients of 0.90 and 0.96 for deep and shallow waters respectively. The intensity of wave climate is then analyzed for the current and three different future climatic conditions, viz., Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5. The highest wave activity is projected for Far Future RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5. A delay in landfall is observed for different RCP scenarios due to the decrease in translation speed of cyclones, leading to sustained wave activity.