In the face of increasing oil and gas demand and increasing development risk, we should explore scientific and effective oil and gas development risk identification and evaluation methods, and make clear the main control factors of the development risk of different types of oil and gas reservoirs at different stages of development, so as to improve the level of oilfield production prediction and early warning, and provide a guarantee for the increase of oil and gas reserves and production. Through an in-depth research on the risk elements of different types of oil and gas reservoirs in China with different development stages in various business segments of development and production, as well as the current status of development risk evaluation and management, it is found that the current oil and gas development risk management and control model is no longer adapted to the needs of digital transformation. There are still three problems in oil and gas development risk evaluation and control: poor real-time development risk early warning, low degree of cross-business integration and comprehensive analysis, and lack of intelligent risk control means. Oil and gas development risk evaluation and prediction should be based on multi-disciplinary dynamic and static data, with intelligent control of production operation and real-time early warning of development risk as the goal, and advanced intelligent technology as the means. Relying on the data sharing-based oil and gas development risk comprehensive evaluation and prediction intelligent platform, the establishment of intelligent development risk evaluation and control mode and system can quickly and accurately predict the development dynamic changes, thus improving the production management decision-making level of the oilfield.

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Discussion on Intelligent Development for Risk Evaluation and Prediction of Oil and Gas Development

  • L. I. Jin,
  • Hui-Qing Liu,
  • Lin Yan,
  • Hong-Liang Wang

摘要

In the face of increasing oil and gas demand and increasing development risk, we should explore scientific and effective oil and gas development risk identification and evaluation methods, and make clear the main control factors of the development risk of different types of oil and gas reservoirs at different stages of development, so as to improve the level of oilfield production prediction and early warning, and provide a guarantee for the increase of oil and gas reserves and production. Through an in-depth research on the risk elements of different types of oil and gas reservoirs in China with different development stages in various business segments of development and production, as well as the current status of development risk evaluation and management, it is found that the current oil and gas development risk management and control model is no longer adapted to the needs of digital transformation. There are still three problems in oil and gas development risk evaluation and control: poor real-time development risk early warning, low degree of cross-business integration and comprehensive analysis, and lack of intelligent risk control means. Oil and gas development risk evaluation and prediction should be based on multi-disciplinary dynamic and static data, with intelligent control of production operation and real-time early warning of development risk as the goal, and advanced intelligent technology as the means. Relying on the data sharing-based oil and gas development risk comprehensive evaluation and prediction intelligent platform, the establishment of intelligent development risk evaluation and control mode and system can quickly and accurately predict the development dynamic changes, thus improving the production management decision-making level of the oilfield.