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With the rapid expansion of urban rail transit networks, understanding the temporal dynamics of passenger flow has become essential for improving operational efficiency and spatial coordination. This study investigates the temporal correlation of OD distance matrices across morning peak, evening peak, and off-peak periods in two cities (Shanghai and Nanchang) using the Mantel Test. The analysis reveals that Shanghai exhibits a strong correlation only between morning and evening peaks, while Nanchang shows significant positive correlations across all periods. These differences are attributed to variations in urban structure, network scale, and travel behavior. The findings highlight how transit system design and urban morphology influence the temporal stability of passenger flow, offering valuable insights for demand-responsive service planning and inter-station coordination in urban rail networks.

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Temporal Correlation Analysis of Urban Rail Transit OD Patterns Based on Mantel Test: A Comparative Case Study of Shanghai and Nanchang

  • 会议论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年

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  • Ziwen Wan,
  • Jungang Shi,
  • Zhen Di,
  • Xupei Qiu,
  • Yonglin Leng,
  • Jiao Jiao,
  • Min Fu,
  • Jiannan Mao

摘要

With the rapid expansion of urban rail transit networks, understanding the temporal dynamics of passenger flow has become essential for improving operational efficiency and spatial coordination. This study investigates the temporal correlation of OD distance matrices across morning peak, evening peak, and off-peak periods in two cities (Shanghai and Nanchang) using the Mantel Test. The analysis reveals that Shanghai exhibits a strong correlation only between morning and evening peaks, while Nanchang shows significant positive correlations across all periods. These differences are attributed to variations in urban structure, network scale, and travel behavior. The findings highlight how transit system design and urban morphology influence the temporal stability of passenger flow, offering valuable insights for demand-responsive service planning and inter-station coordination in urban rail networks.