U.S.-Philippines “Separation” Bid, China Competition and Independent Foreign Policy
摘要
This chapter applies the new balance of alignment model developed in the book to the case of the U.S.-Philippine alliance “separation bid” and intensifying U.S.-China competition that took shape under the administration of President Rodrigo Duterte, with implications spilling over into the term of his successor Ferdinand Marcos Jr.. The case is assessed within the context of country’s overall foreign policy approach sometimes characterized in the contemporary context by policymakers as variations of an “independent foreign policy.” despite complexities across various dynamics including the South China Sea, Taiwan and internal peace process dynamics in the country's south. The chapter proceeds in three sections. The first section explores the evolving shape of adjustments in alignment during this period, delving into the specific indicators and metrics set out in the introduction with the use of original interviews conducted by the author as well as primary and secondary sources. The second section then explores the explanations for adjustments in alignment, arguing that the balance of alignment model offers a good explanation for the case in question and a better one than balance of power, which is the competing approach examined in the book. The third and final section then briefly summarizes the chapter findings.