SHMAs as Evidence for Local Housing Planning in the UK
摘要
Chapter 5 showed that locally commissioned research constitutes the major part of the research evidence cited in English Local Plans. Building on this, the present chapter focuses on the quality of such research by examining the methodological robustness of Strategic Housing Market Assessments (SHMAs). Local planning authorities in the UK face acute challenges in relation to housing supply and affordability. In this context, SHMAs were introduced as the principal evidence base for local housing planning and policy, intended to provide an objective assessment of housing need, particularly the need for affordable housing. However, previous studies have raised questions about the effectiveness of SHMAs, and, against the backdrop of growing expectations for evidence-based policymaking (EBPM), it is important to reassess how robust current SHMAs are as a foundation for policy. This chapter evaluates the transparency and adequacy of the methods and data used in recent SHMAs to assess housing need, comparing the most up-to-date assessments with earlier versions. The analysis shows that important aspects of research methods and data sources remain opaque, and that most SHMAs estimate current housing need primarily from housing register data and future housing need from household projections. Several methodological weaknesses highlighted in earlier critiques have become less common, yet concerns persist about approaches that rely heavily on household projections to forecast future housing need in a market-based housing system shaped by many economic and social factors. These findings highlight both the progress made and the remaining limits on the contribution of SHMAs to EBPM in local housing policy.