Status and Prospects of Decarbonization in China: Energy Transition Progress, Policy Drivers, and Carbon Market
摘要
This article examines strategic pathways in China toward green energy transition, focusing on the interplay of decarbonization policies, carbon market development, and technological advancement in order to achieve its dual-carbon goals: having nearly peaked carbon emissions by 2030 and endeavoring to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. It analyzes the hierarchical policy architecture, anchored in the 14th and ongoing 15th Five-Year Plans, which integrates regulatory policy measures, economic incentives, and market mechanisms to drive industrial decarbonization. The national carbon emissions trading scheme (ETS), expanded to cover high-emission sectors, and the integration of Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) principles are highlighted as key market-driven tools. Technological advancements in solar, wind, hydrogen, energy storage, and smart energies—where China leads global deployment—are explored as critical enablers of energy transition, supporting both domestic renewable scaling and global cost reductions. The article further investigates how the Green Industry Revolution (GIR) has positioned East Asia as a regional hub for sustainable collaboration and how GIR principles are diffusing globally through technology transfers and green investment. Findings underscore Chinese role as a catalyst for global decarbonization, offering insights into balancing economic growth with climate action. The analysis concludes that strategic policy alignment, advanced technological deployment, and major/predominant/imperative market scale, and international cooperation are pivotal for accelerating green transitions worldwide.